基于多元回归分析和模糊集定性比较分析的游客旅游意向影响因素研究——以桂林市为例

Factors Influencing Tourists’Travel Intention Based on Multiple Regression Analysis and Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparison Analysis

积极打造世界级旅游城市是习近平总书记赋予桂林旅游业发展的新使命。游客在桂林建设世界级旅游城市过程中占据重要位置,在后疫情背景下探究游客来桂旅游意向的影响因素,对于了解游客的旅游需求、促进桂林旅游业转型升级具有重要作用。本文基于保护动机理论和旅游需求理论的视角,通过问卷调查获取数据,采用多元回归分析和模糊集定性比较分析方法来实证检验影响游客赴桂旅游的因素及组态效应。结果表明,健康、目的地印象、逃逸释放和摆脱疫情显著影响游客赴桂旅游意向。组态分析结果表明存在15种预测高出游意向的前因条件组合。

Actively building a world-class tourism city is the new mission given by General Secretary Xi Jinping to Guilin’s tourism development.Tourists occupy an important position in the process of building a world-class tourism city in Guilin.Exploring the influencing factors of tourists’intention to visit Guilin in the post-epidemic context plays an important role in understanding tourists’traveling demand and promoting the transformation and upgrading of Guilin tourism.Based on the perspectives of conservation motivation theory and tourism demand theory,this paper obtains data through questionnaire surveys and uses multiple regression analysis and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis to empirically test the factors and group effects that influence tourists’travel to Guilin.The results show that health,destination impression,escape release and escape from the epidemic significantly affect tourists’intention to travel to Guilin.The results of the histological analysis indicated the existence of 15 combinations of antecedent conditions that predicted high travel intention.