樱花盛花期与气象因子相关性分析及预报

Correlation Analysis and Prediction of Cherry Blossom Florescence Stages and Meteorological Factors

[目的]为准确预报鹤壁樱花盛花期提供方法支持。[方法]利用2016—2022年鹤壁农业气象试验站观测的樱花花期资料和地面气象观测资料,对影响樱花盛花期的气象因子进行相关性分析。[结果]2月及2月下旬平均气温、积温与樱花盛花期呈显著负相关,12月至1月上旬平均气温与盛花期呈显著正相关。利用逐步回归法建立了樱花盛花期预报模型,误差1~2 d。[结论]所建立的预测模型能准确预测鹤壁早、晚樱花盛花期。

[Objective]To provide methodological support for accurately predicting the peak blooming period of cherry blossoms in Hebi.[Method]Using the data of cherry blossom period and the ground meteorological observation data observed by the Hebi Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station from 2016 to 2022,a correlation analysis was conducted on the meteorological factors affecting the peak flowering period of cherry blossom.[Result]The average temperature and accumulated temperature in February and late February were significantly negatively correlated with the peak blooming period of cherry blossom,while the average temperature from December to early January was significantly positively correlated with the peak blooming period.A prediction model for the peak blooming period of cherry blossom was established using stepwise regression,with an error of 1-2 days.[Conclusion]The established prediction model can accurately predict the peak blooming periods of early and late cherry blossom in Hebi.