基于粗集理论的影响设计概算编制效率风险分析及处理机制研究

Research on Risk Analysis&Handling Mechanism Affectingthe Efficiency of Design Budget Preparation Based on Rough Set Theory

设计概算编制效率关乎设计阶段的进度和造价控制,进而影响项目的顺利推进。根据已有设计概算的文献研究与专家访谈等方式,确定11种引起概算编制效率下降的风险库,构建基于赢得值的设计概算编制效率管控预警模型并确定纠偏对策,建立基于粗集理论的纠偏对策量化冲突度模型,形成能使问题高效流通到合适管理层级的处理机制。最后,通过实例验证该研究切实可行;并针对风险库中2种较为常见的引起概算编制效率下降的风险,向有关单位提出规避风险的建议。

The efficiency of design budget preparation is related to the progress&cost control of the design stage,which in turn affects the smooth progress of the project.Based on literature research&expert interviews on existing design budgets,11 risk pools that cause the efficiency of budget preparation to decrease are identified.A design budget preparation efficiency control and warning model based on earned value is constructed,and corrective measures are determined.A quantitative conflict degree model based on rough set theory is established to form a processing mechanism that enables efficient communication of problems to the appropriate management level.Finally,the study is validated through examples,and suggestions for risk avoidance are provided to relevant units for two common risks that cause the efficiency of budget preparation to decrease in the risk pool.