全球石油供应链演变趋势——基于实物和虚拟石油贸易比较

Trend of global oil supply chain change:Comparison based on physical and virtual oil trade

【目的】从实物和虚拟石油贸易的角度分析全球石油供应链演变趋势,以揭示虚拟石油的重要作用。【方法】基于多区域投入产出表,构建了石油多区域投入产出模型,测算了2000—2016年石油贸易中的虚拟石油,并综合考察了实物和虚拟石油在主要石油生产、消费和贸易国家间的流动关系;通过区分中间和最终产品,探讨了186个国家(地区)26个部门石油贸易的异质性;另外,进一步分析了实物与虚拟石油的贸易平衡和对外依存度,并根据能源转型加速情景,预测了2017—2030年全球隐含石油需求。【结果】研究发现:①虚拟石油产量占全球石油总产量的1/3以上,虚拟石油生产和消费主要集中在经济发展程度较高的国家(地区),而实物石油生产和消费主要分布在石油资源丰裕的国家(地区)。②流向工业化和经济发展水平较高国家(地区)的虚拟石油贸易总量大于相应的实物石油贸易量,虚拟石油贸易对全球石油贸易平衡和供应安全起着积极的促进作用。③最终产品与中间产品的石油贸易格局相反,中间产品贸易中的出口国(地区)在最终产品贸易中转变为进口国(地区)。④2017—2030年,大多数发达国家的石油需求呈明显下降趋势,且隐含石油需求在不同年份达到峰值后平稳下降,并保持在1.5亿~2亿t/年左右。【结论】全球实物和虚拟石油贸易差异较大,存在明显的空间异质性特征,同时虚拟石油在国际贸易中的比重不断增加,因而在制定贸易政策时应注重区域差异。

[Objective]This study analyzed the trend of change of global oil supply chain from the perspective of comparing physical and virtual oil trade,so as to reveal the important role of virtual oil.[Methods]Based on the traditional multi-regional input-output table,this study constructed a multi-regional input-output model of oil,calculated virtual oil in oil trade from 2000 to 2016,and comprehensively examined the main countries of oil production,consumption,and trade and their flow relations from the dual perspectives of physical and virtual oil.The heterogeneity of oil trade in 189 countries(regions)and 26 sectors was discussed by distinguishing intermediate and final product.The trade balance and external dependence of physical and virtual oil were further analyzed,and the global implicit oil demand before 2030 was predicted according to the accelerated energy transformation scenario.[Results]The study found that:(1)Virtual oil production accounted for more than one-third of the total global oil production.Virtual oil production and consumption are mainly concentrated in countries(regions)with higher economic development levels,while physical oil production and consumption are mainly distributed in countries(regions)with abundant oil resources;(2)The total amount of virtual oil trade flowing to countries(regions)with higher levels of industrialization and economic development is greater than the corresponding amount of physical oil trade.The virtual oil trade played a positive role in promoting the global oil trade balance and supply security;(3)The pattern of oil trade between final products and intermediate products is opposite,and the exporting country(region)in intermediate product trade is transformed into the importing country(region)in final product trade;(4)From 2017 to 2030,the oil demand of most developed countries showed a significant downward trend,and the implied oil demand steadily decreased after reaching its peak in different years,maintaining around 150-200 million tons per year.[Conclusion]There are great differences between global physical and virtual oil trade,with significant spatial heterogeneity.The proportion of virtual oil represented by non-oil products in international trade is constantly increasing.Therefore,when formulating trade policies,it is necessary to consider regional differences.