中国城市“碳诅咒”效应及其异质性

The“carbon curse”effect and its heterogeneity in cities of China

【目的】“碳诅咒”是指化石能源富集区域比化石能源贫瘠区域更倾向于采取碳密集发展方式的现象。本文将“碳诅咒”理论延伸至城市层面,考察“碳诅咒”效应在中国的存在性与差异性。【方法】通过识别中国化石能源城市、划分其能源类型和开发阶段,采用变系数固定效应模型,选用2012—2017年的地级市面板数据,检验“碳诅咒”效应在中国城市层面的存在性以及不同化石能源城市遭受“碳诅咒”的程度差异。【结果】中国化石能源城市比非化石能源城市更倾向于采取碳密集发展方式;从城市能源类型来看,油气型、煤炭油气型、煤炭型城市受“碳诅咒”的程度依次减弱;从城市开发阶段来看,成熟型、再生型、成长型、衰退型城市受“碳诅咒”的程度依次减弱;从控制变量来看,化石能源城市的人口密度和政府干预程度增加了碳排放强度,环境规制和外商直接投资在降低碳排放强度方面效果不显著。【结论】在中国城市层面,的确存在“碳诅咒”现象。这种现象由于城市能源类型与开发阶段的不同呈现出差异。

[Objective]The term“carbon curse”outlines a situation where regions with abundant fossil fuel resources are more likely to pursue a carbon-intensive growth path than regions with scarce fossil fuel resources.This study examined the existence and variations of the“carbon curse”effect in China in order to extend the“carbon curse”theory to the city level.[Methods]By identifying Chinese fossil fuel cities,categorizing their energy types and development stages,and employing a variable coefficient fixed-effects model with panel data from prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2017,this study aims to investigate the existence of the“carbon curse”effect at the urban level in China,as well as the varying degrees to which different fossil fuel cities are affected by the“carbon curse.”[Results]Compared to Chinese cities that relied on non-fossil energy sources,those that depended on fossil fuels were more likely to adopt carbon-intensive development strategies.Oil-gas cities,coal-oil-gas cities,and coal cities were in decreasing order of“carbon curse”severity according to the energy source of fossil fuel cities.Mature cities,regeneration cities,growing cities,and declining cities were ranked in decreasing order of"carbon curse"severity according to the development stages of fossil fuel cities.Taking control variables into account,high population density and government intervention in fossil fuel cities increased carbon intensity,and environmental regulations and foreign direct investment had no appreciable impact on lowering it.[Conclusion]The“carbon curse”phenomenon does in fact exist at the city level in China.Different energy sources and developmental stages of cities caused variations in this phenomenon,and it is necessary to further investigate the underlying mechanisms that caused these discrepancies.