阜新地区1961~2022年气候变化及其对粮食产量的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Fuxin from 1961 to 2022

利用Damel趋势检验法等方法分析了1961~2022年阜新地区的气象资料。结果表明,阜新年平均气温为8.1℃,整体呈上升趋势,62年上升了1.2℃;年降水变化趋势不明显,年平均降水量为501.0 mm,年际间降水量差别较大;日照时数整体呈增加趋势,变化率为9.0 h/10年,年平均日照时数为2700.0 h。阜新地区作物生长季(5~9月)的平均气温和日照时数均与粮食产量呈反相关关系,降水量与粮食产量呈明显的正相关关系;从相关系数上看,降水在粮食产量中占主要作用。计算得出粮食产量预测方程为,Y=32.907-0.98x_(1)+0.027x_(2)-0.004x_(3),经F检验,P=0.000,说明此预测模型的实用性较强。

Based on the meteorological data of Fuxin region from 1961 to 2022,the Damel trend test method was used to analyze the data.The results show that the annual mean temperature is 8.1℃,and the overall trend of increase is 1.2℃in 62 years;The annual average precipitation was 501.0 mm,and there was a great difference between the two years;The total sunshine duration showed an increasing trend with a change rate of 9.0 h/10a and an annual average sunshine duration of 2700.0 h.In Fuxin,the average temperature and sunshine hours during the growing season(may-september)were inversely related to the grain yield,the precipitation had a positive correlation with grain yield;In terms of correlation coefficient,precipitation plays an important role in grain yield.The equation of grain yield prediction is Y=32.907-0.98x_(1)+0.027x_(2)-0.004x_(3),the F test shows that P=0.000,which indicates that the prediction model is practical.