基于结构方程模型的政府应急管理能力评价

Evaluation of Government Emergency Management Capability Based on Structural Equation Model

为提高政府应对突发事件的处置与管理能力,应用结构方程模型(SEM)建立政府应急管理评价体系。首先,从应急预防准备能力、应急响应能力、应急救援能力和恢复重建能力4方面构建应急管理要素的各个潜变量与观测变量指标体系;其次,基于要素指标体系和结构方程模型,设定X市应急管理能力评价概念,并建立应急管理能力影响因素路径关系;然后,根据调查问卷数据的信效性分析,实现对应急管理能力影响因素路径关系进行评价;最后,提出基于关系假设的应急管理能力评价体系图,根据模型测量变量与潜变量的因子负荷系数计算出X市应急管理能力综合指数,进而实现对政府应急管理能力的综合评估。研究表明:基于SEM可对X市应急管理能力做出合理评价,体现出该模型具有实践价值。

In order to improve the ability of the government to deal with and manage emergencies,the struc⁃tural equation model(SEM)is introduced to establish the evaluation system of government emergency man⁃agement.First of all,the index system of latent variables and observation variables of emergency management elements is constructed from four aspects:emergency prevention and preparation capacity,e⁃mergency response capacity,emergency rescue capacity and recovery and reconstruction capacity.Secondly,based on the factor index system and SEM,the concept of emergency management capability evaluation in X city is set up,and the path relationship of influencing factors of emergency management capability is estab⁃lished.Then,based on the reliability and validity analysis of the questionnaire data,the path relationship of the influencing factors of emergency management ability is evaluated.Finally,the emergency management capability evaluation system diagram based on relationship hypothesis is proposed.The comprehensive index of emergency management capability of X city is calculated according to the factor load coefficient of model measurement variables and latent variables,and then the comprehensive evaluation of government emergency management capability is realized.The research shows that the reasonable evaluation of the emergency man⁃agement capability of X city based on SEM shows that the model has practical value.