钢铁领域CO_(2)减排协同发展的实现策略--以京津冀为例

Strategies for the Coordinated Development of CO_(2) Emission Reduction in the Steel Sector:A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

本文运用C-D生产函数修正传统的LMDI指数分解法并构建Tapio及交叉脱钩模型,结合灰色预测模型GM(1,1),实证分析2006—2025年京津冀钢铁领域碳排放的碳强度、驱动因素、脱钩指数及协同关系。结果发现:①京津冀从“十一五”到“十四五”时期钢铁领域碳排放由快速增长变为缓慢增长,北京市和天津市钢铁领域的碳排放强度均低于地区平均水平,河北省则高于平均水平;②碳增排因素为能源消费碳强度和资本投入,碳减排因素为能源强度和技术进步,劳动投入逐渐从碳增排效应转变为碳减排效应;③京津冀钢铁领域碳排放与工业增加值未实现脱钩,且京津冀三地间脱钩协同关系多表现为不协同。鉴于京津冀城市群钢铁领域聚集,需推进钢铁领域实现协同脱钩,积极引领“双碳”行动。

In this paper,the C-D production function was used to modify the traditional LMDI index decomposition method,and Tapio and cross-decoupling models were constructed.Combined with the grey prediction model GM(1,1),the carbon intensity,driving factors,decoupling index and synergistic relationship of carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei steel sector during 2006—2025 were empirically analyzed.The results showed that:①From the“11th Five-Year Plan”to the“14th Five-Year Plan”period,the carbon emission of the steel sector in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei changed from rapid growth to slow growth,the carbon emission intensity of the steel sector in Beijing and Tianjin was lower than the regional average level,while that of Hebei Province was higher than the average level.②Carbon emission increase factors were energy consumption carbon intensity and capital input,carbon emission reduction factors were energy intensity and technological progress,and labor input gradually changed from carbon emission increase effect to carbon emission reduction effect.③There was no decoupling between carbon emissions and industrial added value in the steel sector of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and the decoupling synergy between the three places was mostly not synergistic.In view of the gathering of the steel field in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster,it is necessary to promote the coordinated decoupling of the steel field and actively lead the“double carbon”action.