基于I-CF模型的四川德格县滑坡危险性评价与区划

Landslide geological hazard assessment based on the I-CF model of Dege County in Sichuan Province

文章以德格县为研究区,以7 m DEM进行地形分析处理,并结合相关调查数据建立了德格县滑坡灾害数据库,通过选取的地震峰值加速度、断裂带、水系、坡度、坡向、高程、岩性等7个指标,在GIS技术支持下,利用信息量模型(I)、层次分析法模型(AHP)、确定性系数模型(CF)相互耦合对研究区灾害敏感性评价,再分析得到活动频率因素对研究区全县域进行危险性评价,将得到的结果分成4个区域,分别为高危险区、较高危险区、中危险区、低危险区,其中高、较高危险区占总面积2.23%。其中,滑坡灾害占总灾害的42%。评价结果与实际调查结果符合程度较高,能够为该地域未进行实地调查的地方进行相关滑坡灾害的预测预报,并对安全防治提供技术支持,亦可以为其他地区滑坡灾害危险性评价提供理论指导和技术参考。

This study focuses on Dege County as the research area,and carries out terrain analysis and processing with 7m DEM.A landslide hazard database for Dege County is establishing using relevant survey data.With the support of GIS technology,this research employs the information quantity model(I),analytic hierarchy process model(AHP),and deterministic coefficient model(CF)coupling to evaluate the hazard sensitivity within the study area based on seven selected indicators:mic peak acceleration,fault zone,water system,slope,slope direction,elevation,and lithology.Subsequently,an assessment of hazard is conducted for the entire county domain by considering factors related to landslide activity frequency.The results are categorized into four zones:high risk,relatively high risk,moderate risk,and low risk.The high and relatively high-risk zones collectively cover 2.23%of the total area,with landslides accounting for 42%of the overall hazards.The evaluation results align well with the actual survey findings,providing technical support for predicting,forecasting,and implementing safety measures against landslide disasters in areas that without field investigation.Furthermore,it can serve as a theoretical guide and technical reference for the risk assessment of landslide hazard in other regions.