德国关停核电前后保供应促消纳经验分析

Empirical Analysis of Ensuring Electricity Supply and Promoting Renewable Power Consumption Before and After the Shutdown of Nuclear Power Plants:the Germany Case

4月15日,在俄乌冲突危机仍未解除的情况下,德国如期关停核电。截至目前,德国供电安全并未受到明显影响,主要得益于裕度较高的常规电源、灵活的调节能力、坚强高效的跨国电网、相对完善的电力市场、高水平的可再生能源预测技术和监控手段。德国电力系统初步完成了“高比例可再生能源渗透+电网运行灵活稳定+电力市场化定价”的目标,但高成本高电价也给德国带来了一定的负担。为此,以德国为例开展研究分析,提出了中国能源转型过程中保障电力安全可靠供应、促进可再生能源高比例消纳的相关建议。

On April 15th 2023,Germany has shut down all their nuclear power plants as scheduled,although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict crisis remains unresolved.Up to now,its power supply security has not been significantly affected,as the results of sufficient conventional power generation capacity as well as their flexible regulation capacity,the solid and efficient transnational power grid,the efficient power market,and the high-accuracy renewable power forecasting technology.The German power system has initially accomplished the goal of a"high proportion of renewable energy penetration,flexible and stable grid operation and market-based electricity pricing",but the high costs and high electricity price have brought heavy burden.Taking Germany as a reference,this study puts forward some suggestions for ensuring a safe and reliable supply of electricity and promoting a high proportion of renewable energy consumption during the energy transition process of China.