中国木浆进口风险的多维度分析与评价

Multidimensional Analysis and Evaluation of China’s Wood Pulp Import Risk

【目的】中国是世界纸和纸板生产和消费第一大国,造纸是国民经济重要支柱产业。作为造纸基本原材料的木浆,自1995年起就成为中国木质林产品中进口额第一大品类,具有进口量大、增速快、价格高的特点,需关注中国木浆进口风险,以保证造纸工业产业链供应链安全。【方法】规范和确定中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度、中国木浆进口市场集中度、中国木浆进口国际市场占有率算法并设定其引致中国木浆进口风险的风险分区,构造中国木浆进口风险乘法指数和加法指数,科学设定其风险分区,通过比较确定中国木浆进口风险指数的合理评价方法。【结果】中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度、中国木浆进口市场集中度、中国木浆进口国际市场占有率是引致中国木浆进口风险的核心因素。2000—2021年中国木浆消耗的进口对外依存度呈现较高水平上的波动减少中缓慢下降的趋势,2021年为62.34%,其所引致的进口风险处于高风险区,接近极高风险区;2000—2021年中国木浆进口市场集中度CR8呈现高水平上的波动中缓慢下降的趋势,2021年为89.69%,其所引致的进口风险处于极高风险区;2000—2021年中国木浆进口国际市场占有率呈快速上升态势,2021年为43.28%,其所引致的进口风险处于高风险区。基于多维度的中国木浆进口风险整体评价方法宜采用因子相乘方式构造,但不管构造的是乘法指数还是加法指数,均显示中国木浆进口风险处于极高风险区。【结论】为减少中国木浆进口风险,应推进工业纸浆林建设,扩大国产木浆供给;从纸和纸板生产、消费、出口3方面,引导国内浆纸需求;以纸代浆,调整浆纸贸易产品结构;加大海外投资,优化木浆进口市场来源结构等。

【Objective】China is the largest country in the production and consumption of paper and paperboard in the world,and the paper industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy.As the basic raw material of the paper industry,wood pulp has become the largest import category of China’s wood forest products since 1995.It has the characteristics of large import volume,rapid growth and high prices.It is necessary to pay attention to the import risk of China’s wood pulp to ensure the supply chain security of the paper industry chain.【Method】After standardizing and determining the algorithm of the import market concentration ratio,the import dependence in consumption,and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp,and scientifically setting the risk zone of China’s wood pulp import risk caused by them,the multiplication index and additive index of China’s wood pulp import risk were constructed with their risk zone set scientifically,the reasonable evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk index was determined through comparison.【Result】The import dependence in consumption,the import market concentration ratio,and the import international market share of China’s wood pulp,are the core factors that lead to the import risk of China’s wood pulp.The import dependence in consumption of China’s wood pulp appeared a slow decline trend in reducing fluctuation and at high level from 2000 to 2021,and it was 62.34%in 2021,the import risk caused by it was in the high risk zone,close to the extremely high risk zone.The import market concentration ratio CR8 of China’s wood pulp presented a slow decline trend in fluctuations and at a high level from 2000 to 2021,and it was 89.69%in 2021,the import risk caused by it was in the extremely high risk zone.The import international market share of China’s wood pulp was rising rapidly from 2000 to 2021,and it reached 43.28%in 2021,the import risk caused by it was in the high-risk zone.The overall evaluation method of China’s wood pulp import risk based on multi-dimension should adopt the factor multiplication method,but no matter the multiplicative index or additive index constructed,it shows that China’s wood pulp import risk is in the extremely high risk zone.【Conclusion】In order to reduce the import risk of China’s wood pulp,it is proposed to promote the construction of industrial pulp forest to expand the supply of domestic wood pulp,guide the domestic demand of pulp and paper from the production,consumption and export of paper and paperboard,adjust the product structure of wood pulp and paper trade by replacing pulp with paper,and optimize the import source market structure of wood pulp by increasing overseas investment.