CPTPP关税减让模式对中国农产品贸易的影响分析:基于一般均衡模型

Analysis of the impact of CPTPP tariff concession mode on China’s agricultural products trade:Based on General Equilibrium Model

设置3种关税减让情景,以关税税率为模拟冲击变量,运用GTAP模型分析各情景下中国农产品进出口额、农产品价格、农产品贸易差额和农产品产量的变化:关税减让促进农产品进口额增加,进口价格降低,对部分农产品的出口产生消极影响,出口价格指数普遍上升。谷物制品、肉制品、加工大米等产品的出口趋势增强,中国粮棉油糖等大宗农产品的产出会受到影响,但总体可控。基于此,提出相应的政策建议。

This study sets up three tariff concession scenarios,takes the tariff rate as the simulated impact variable,and uses the GTAP model to analyze the changes of China's agricultural product import and export volume,agricultural product price,agricultural product trade balance and agricultural product output under each scenario.The results illustrate that the tariff concession promotes the increase in the import value of agricultural products and reduces the import price,which has a negative impact on the export of some agricultural products,and the export price index generally rises.Moreover,the export trend of cereal products,meat products,processed rice and other products is enhancing,and the output of China's grain,cotton,oil,sugar and other bulk agricultural products will be affected,however it is generally controllable.In addition,the study further puts forward some policy recommendations.