小城镇人口研究:热点议题与未来展望

Small Town Population Research:Hot Topics and Prospects

小城镇作为链接城市与农村的纽带,在吸纳农村剩余劳动力、疏解大城市人口压力方面具有重要作用。对中国小城镇人口研究进行综述发现:(1)中国小城镇人口规模界定标准目前仍未统一;(2)中国小城镇人口流动迁移特征与发达国家不同,研究中存在概念混淆现象,实证研究范围欠缺全国尺度;(3)一个绝对的小城镇合理人口规模区间并不存在,人口规模预测方法或模型存在一定误差或不确定性;(4)小城镇人口集聚力不足的主要原因在于就业机会及工资水平与城市有所差距;(5)小城镇人口对城镇化的贡献研究逐渐由定性探讨向定量测度转变。在此基础上,一要加强分不同国土空间类型小城镇人口的发展战略研究与发展趋势预测;二要拓展和深化小城镇人口集聚力提升研究;三要强化多空间、多视角的定量研究。

As a link between urban and rural areas,small towns play an important role in digesting rural sur⁃plus labor and relieving the population pressure of large cities.Based on relevant literature review,it is found that,(1)the population definition criterion of China's small town has not been unified so far;(2)the popu⁃lation migration characteristics of China's small town are different from developed countries,and there is a problem of mixed concepts in the research,and the empirical research scope lacks the national scale;(3)a fully reasonable population size range for small towns does not exist,and population prediction methods need continue to be explored,for their accuracy has certain deviation or uncertainty;(4)the core drawback of in⁃sufficient population concentration in small towns lies in employment opportunities and wage levels;(5)the research on the contribution of small towns to urbanization gradually changes from qualitative discussion to quantitative measurement.On this basis,it is proposed that,strengthen the research on the development strat⁃egy and forecast of the development trend of small town population in different land space types;expand and deepen the research on the dynamic mechanism of population agglomeration in small towns;strengthen multi⁃space and multi⁃perspective quantitative research.