基于能源碳排放投入产出视角的产业结构优化研究

Research on Industrial Structure Optimization based on Input-output Perspective of Energy Carbon Emissions

气候变化和经济高质量发展是受到广泛关注的全球性问题。优化调整产业结构是平衡经济发展与减排的重要手段。文章以经济增长和碳减排为目标,编制了含30种能源的“碳排放”投入产出表,构建了碳减排约束的线性优化模型,揭示了在经济优先型、均衡型和减排优先型三种情景下三次产业的最优结构,并进一步揭示了30个产业部门的最优结构。研究发现:在三种情景下,优化后的产业结构都能实现经济增长和减排目标,但在经济优先型情景下的GDP增长率最高,达到8.10%;减排优先型情景下碳减排率最高,达到8.00%。从优化后的三次产业结构来看,第一产业和第二产业的增加值对GDP占比和碳排放量对总碳排放量占比均有所下降,而第三产业的占比显著上升。从优化后的各个部门结构来看,经济增长贡献最大的3个部门是30“其他”、6“食品和烟草”和20“计算机通信和其他电子设备制造业”;减排潜力最大的3个部门是14“金属冶炼和压延加工品”、13“非金属矿物制品业”和28“交通运输仓储和邮政业”。适当的经济发展和减排约束,不仅有利于减排也有利于经济发展。

Climate change and high-quality economic development are global issues that have attracted widespread attention.Optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure is an important means to balance economic development and emission reduction.How to adjust the industrial structure of each sector in the context of low carbon economic development is the focus of this study.Therefore,aiming at economic growth and carbon emission reduction,this paper compiles an input-output table of“carbon emissions”containing 30 kinds of energy.Based on this table,a linear optimization model of carbon emission reduction constraints is constructed,revealing the optimal structure of the three industries under the three scenarios of economic priority,balanced type and emission reduction priority,and further revealing the optimal structure of 30 industrial sectors.It is found that:In the three scenarios,although the optimized industrial structure can achieve economic growth and emission reduction goals,the GDP growth rate is the highest under the economic priority scenario,reaching 8.10%;Under the emission reduction priority scenario,the carbon emission reduction rate was the highest,reaching 8.00%.From the perspective of the optimized three industrial structure,the proportion of added value of the primary and secondary industries to GDP and the proportion of carbon emissions to total carbon emissions decreased,while the proportion of the tertiary industry increased significantly.From the perspective of the optimized structure of each sector,the three sectors with the largest contribution to economic growth are 30“others”,6“food and tobacco”and 20“computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing”;The three sectors with the largest emission reduction potential are 14“metal smelting and rolling products”,13“nonmetallic mineral products”and 28“transportation,warehousing and postal services”.Appropriate economic development and emission reduction constraints are not only conducive to emission reduction but also to economic development.This paper provides a scientific basis for China to further adjust the structure of the industrial sector and achieve high-quality economic development.