“双碳”目标背景下可再生能源发展对区域碳排放效率的影响评估

Assessment of the Impact of Renewable Energy Development on Regional Carbon Emission Efficiency in the Context of the“Double Carbon”Target

基于2000—2019年的省级面板数据,使用DEA窗口下的非径向DDF测算碳排放效率,采用半参数模型和固定效应模型探究可再生能源发展与碳排放效率的非线性和线性关系。结果表明:全国平均碳排放效率呈现上升趋势,且东部地区高于平均水平、中西部地区低于平均水平。在“生产效应”和“消费效应”的共同作用下,碳排放效率随可再生能源发展呈现“N”型变动趋势。可再生能源对全国碳排放效率的促进效果并不显著,但它每增加1%,会分别提升东、中部地区碳排放效率的0.62%和3.5%,降低西部地区碳排放效率的7.43%,实现东、中、西部地区的资源优化配置。据此,文章从碳定价、财税优惠等方面提出了提高我国碳排放效率和促进“双碳”目标实现的建议。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019,this paper uses the non-radial DDF under the DEA window to measure carbon emission efficiency,and uses a semi-parametric model and a fixed effect model to explore renewable Nonlinear and linear relationship between energy development and carbon emission efficiency.The results show that:The national average carbon emission efficiency shows an upward trend,and the eastern part is higher than the average level,and the central and western parts are lower than the average level;Under the combined effect of“production effect”and“consumption effect”,the carbon emission efficiency with the development of renewable energy shows an“N”-shaped change trend;The promotion effect of renewable energy on the national carbon emission efficiency is not significant,but every 1%increase in it will increase the carbon emission efficiency in the eastern and central regions by 0.62%and 3.5%respectively,reduce the carbon emission efficiency in the west by 7.43%,and realize the optimal allocation of resources in the eastern,central and western regions.Based on this,this paper puts forward suggestions on improving China􀆳s carbon emission efficiency and promoting the realization of the“dual carbon”goal from the aspects of carbon pricing,fiscal and tax incentives,etc.