省域天然气发电成本模型及敏感性分析

Cost model and sensitivity analysis for provincial natural gas power generation

本研究旨在为浙江省天然气发电领域提供一种准确有效的成本模型。首先,调研了浙江省天然气发电机组的发展现状及运行现状,并构建了天然气发电的成本模型和运行场景。其次,构建了五种常用机型的效率曲线,并对比分析了不同机型的成本构成差异。最后,针对不同型号的天然气发电机组,分析对比了天然气价格、年等效发电小时数和运维成本参数对度电成本的敏感性。获得的多影响因素的成本模型,为浙江省天然气发电的成本预测提供了一种较为准确的方法。

The present study aims to provide an accurate and effective cost model for the natural gas power generation in Zhejiang Province.First,the paper investigates the status in quo of natural gas generators in Zhejiang Province and constructs a cost model and operational scenario for those power plants.Second,the paper constructs efficiency curves for five commonly-used natural gas generators and compares the differences in the cost breakdowns among different generators.Last,the paper analyzes and compares the sensitivity of the power generation cost to the natural gas price,annual equivalent operating hours,and maintenance cost parameters for different types of natural gas generators.In the developed cost model,various influencing factors are taken into consideration,to provide an accurate method for cost prediction for the natural gas power generation in Zhejiang Province.