2023年度国内玉米市场形势分析及展望

Domestic Corn Market Situation and Prospects in 2023

2023年以来,国内玉米市场在供应总体充足、下游饲用及深加工需求持续疲软影响下,价格呈现震荡下跌再反弹走势,但价格回升的主要驱动力来自于玉米流通粮源供给不断趋紧,用粮企业在刚需情况下因到货不足而被动提价;同时,贸易商持粮成本不断增加,普遍存在惜售挺价心态,也对二季度以来价格走强形成较强支撑。后期随着新季玉米陆续收获上市,加之饲用小麦占比增加,供给形势好转叠加下游需求回升预期不高,国内玉米市场仍将保持供强需弱格局。

In 2023,the domestic corn market had sufficient supply,but demand was relatively weak,the price showed a fluctuating downward trend,then it turned into an upward trend.The main reason for the increase in corn price in the later stage was the continuous shortage of supply,so grain enterprises were actively raising prices due to insufficient arrival volume.At the same time,the increasing cost of grain storage by trading enterprises had led to a general mentality of being reluctant to sell and price up,which was also conducive to the rise in corn prices since the second quarter.In the later stage,as new corn was gradually harvested and listed,coupled with an increase in the proportion of wheat used for feed,the supply situation in the corn market had improved.However,the expectation of downstream demand rebound was not high,and it was expected that the domestic corn market would still maintain a strong supply and weak demand pattern.