多因素驱动下城市水污染系统构建及仿真研究

Construction and Simulation of Urban Water Pollution System Driven by Multiple Factors

水资源是城市发展的资源基础,城市产业及人口集聚产生的水污染已成为城市高质量发展的关键桎梏。为研究城市人口—产业—经济发展与城市水污染的关系,以武汉市为例,构建城市水污染系统模拟仿真模型,以2020年为基准年,《武汉市水污染防治规划(2016—2030年)》规定的2030年COD排放量34.5万吨为目标,设置基准情景和3种政策控制情景,模拟预测不同情景下城市COD污染量。结果表明:(1)城市COD总量主要受人口子系统和畜禽子系统影响,生活污水将成为城市水污染的主要来源;(2)分别控制点源和面源子系统的污染源,城市COD污染量分别降低了8.47%和3.37%;(3)综合考虑所有污染源控制的情景才能达到规划控制目标,单目标情景都不能达到城市高质量发展的水污染标准。

Water resources are the resource base of urban development and water pollution caused by urban industry and population agglomeration has become a key shackle to high-quality urban development.In order to study the relationship between urban population-industry-economic development and urban water pollution,taking Wuhan City as an example,the simulation model of urban water pollution system was constructed.Taking 2020 as the base year,with Wuhan Water Pollution Prevention and Control Plan(2016-2030)target total control 345000 tons in 2030,the benchmark scenario and three policy control scenarios are set to simulate and predict the total urban COD pollution under different scenarios.The results show that:(1)The total urban COD emission is mainly affected by population and livestock subsystems,and the domestic sewage will become the main source of urban water pollution.(2)By controlling the pollution sources of point source and non-point source subsystems,the COD pollution of cities is reduced by 8.47%and 3.37%,respectively.(3)Only when all these four pollution sources are controlled,can the target emission be achieved,while any single scenario control cannot meet the water pollution standards for high-quality urban development.