摘要
An augmented methodology is developed to estimate the reliability of deep excavations along spatially variable massive rock masses using the cohesion weakening friction strengthening(CWFS)model.Sensitive parameters of the CWFS model were initially identified using Sobol’s global sensitivity analysis based on their influence on the displacements and excavation damage zone around excavations.The probability of failure was estimated by performing Mont–Carlo Simulations on random finite difference models of excavations generated via MATLAB-FLAC2D coupling,considering the spatial variation of these sensitive parameters.Spatial variation was modeled by generating anisotropic random fields of sensitive CWFS parameters via the recently developed Fourier series method and updated correlations suggested by Walton(2019).The proposed methodology was demonstrated for a proposed deep nuclear waste repository to be located in Canada.Results from the developed methodology were systematically compared with those of traditional reliability(ignoring spatial variation)and deterministic methods(ignoring uncertainty).Although the developed methodology was computationally complex,it was judged to be the most realistic due to the realistic consideration of heterogeneous distributions of rock properties.Traditional methodologies underestimate/overestimate the excavation performance due to negligence of uncertainty and spatial variability.Finally,a parametric analysis was performed using developed methodology by varying the initial friction angle,scale of fluctuations(SOFs)and dilation angle.The effect of initial friction angle was observed to be more pronounced on the probability of failures as compared to SOFs and dilation angle.Similar observations were made related to the excavation damage zone(EDZ)development quantified using yield area ratio.
基金
supported by the Initiation Research Grant from Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur,India.
