Evaluation of fault stability and seismic potential for Hutubi underground gas storage due to seasonal injection and extraction

The Hutubi gas field was put into production in 1998 and then converted into an underground gas storage(UGS)facility in 2013,and since then a cluster of earthquakes associated with seasonal injection and extraction activities have been recorded nearby.To evaluate the fault stability and seismic potential,we established a pseudo-3D geomechanical model to simulate the process of seasonal injection and extraction.Reservoir pore pressures from 1998 to 2019 were obtained through multiphase reservoir simulation and validated by history matching the field injection and production data.We then imported pore pressures into the geomechanical model to simulate the poroelastic perturbation on faults for over 20 years.The fidelity of this model was validated by comparing the simulated surface deformation with global positioning system(GPS)measured data.We used Coulomb failure stress(CFS)as the indicator for the likelihood of fault slippage.The simulation results show that the location of the induced earthquake cluster was within the positive Coulomb stress perturbation(DCFS)area,in which fault slippage was promoted.In addition,DCFS at the earthquake location kept increasing after the injection began.These findings could explain the induced earthquakes with the Coulomb failure stress theory.Furthermore,we conducted a parameter sensitivity study on the dominant factors such as the maximum operating pressure(MOP),frictional coefficient,and dip angle of the pre-existing fault.The results indicate that the magnitude of DCFS caused by seasonal injection and extraction decreases with distance;MOPs are constrained to 32.9,36.2,and 39.5 MPa according to different DCFS thresholds;the critical dip angle ranges are 0-20°and 80°-100°;and strengthening the fault friction can either increase or decrease the seismic potential.This study can help determine the MOP for Hutubi underground gas storage(HTB UGS)and provide a framework for simulating the potential causes of induced seismicity for other sites.