湖南省农业碳排放脱钩弹性及驱动因素——基于Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分析

Decoupling Elasticity and Drivers of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province--Based on Tapio Decoupling Model and LMDI Analysis

【目的】新发展阶段,明晰农业碳与农业经济的关联,厘清农业碳减排路径,将助力实现农业高质量发展,推动农业领域“双碳”进程。【方法】基于2000—2021年湖南省农业碳排放测算数据,运用Tapio脱钩模型分析农业碳排放与经济发展的相关关系,采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)对碳排放驱动因素进行分解。【结果】湖南省农业碳排放量2014年达到峰值,年均增长2.46%,2015年以后平均每年下降1.4%,其中化肥是影响湖南省农业碳排放的主要碳源;碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系于2015年由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩;经济规模是研究变量中长期促进碳排放的唯一驱动因素,能源结构、能源强度与人口规模有效影响农业碳排放,产业结构对碳排放的作用不显著。【结论】建议从严管控高碳型生产资料、优化产业结构、提高生产效率、加强农业技术创新、完善政府扶持政策和制度及生态补偿机制等方面开展湖南农业碳减排工作,助力湖南低碳农业产业高质量发展。

【Objective】In the new development stage,clarifying the relationship between agricultural carbon and agricultural economy and clarifying the path of agricultural carbon emission reduction will help achieve high-quality agricultural development and promote the process of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality"in the agricultural field.【Method】Based on the measured data of agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2021,the Tapio decoupling model is used to analyze the correlation between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development,and the log-averaged Dixie index(LMDI)is used to decompose the drivers of carbon emissions.【Result】The research shows that:agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province reached their peak in 2014,with an average annual increase of 2.46%,and after 2015,the average decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth changed from a weak decoupling to a strong decoupling in 2015;economic scale is the only driver of carbon emissions in the study variables in the long term,energy structure,energy intensity,and population size effectively influence agricultural carbon emissions,and the role of industrial structure on carbon emissions is not significant.【Conclusion】It is recommended to carry out Hunan agricultural carbon emission reduction work from strict control of high-carbon production materials,optimize the industrial structure,improve production efficiency,strengthen agricultural technology innovation,improve government support policies and systems and ecological compensation mechanisms,and help hunan′s low-carbon agricultural industry develop with high quality.