航班延误下异质型旅客出行方式选择决策

Heterogeneous Passengers'Travel Mode Choice Decision under Flight Delays

航班延误后旅客可能继续等待原航班,也有可能改乘高铁等其他交通方式。研究航班延误旅客后续出行方式选择行为,有助于航空公司和机场安排运力及设施资源以提升服务。基于前景理论和模糊混合多属性决策理论提出航班延误下异质型旅客出行方式选择决策方法(OPT-MADM-FT)。首先,利用潜在类别模型将旅客分为三类群体;其次,综合考虑不同出行方式的客观特点和旅客的主观态度确定三参照点,并确定异质型旅客的属性偏好权重;最终依据综合前景值,确定不同延误情境下旅客的最优出行方式选择。研究发现基于理论计算的出行方式选择与旅客实际选择的一致程度为88%。与仅考虑单一属性对方案进行描述、仅使用单一参照点进行方案比选以及将旅客视为同质主体三种情况进行对比,综合考虑多种出行方式属性、三个参照点和旅客异质性的决策方法更有效地解释了旅客航班延误后的出行方式选择行为。

After flight delays,passengers may continue to wait for the original flight,or they may change to other modes such as high-speed railway.Studying the choice of subsequent travel modes for passengers under flight delays can help airlines and airports to arrange transport capacity and facility resources to improve services.Based on prospect theory and fuzzy mixed multi-attribute decision making,a travel mode choice decision-making method(OPT-MADM-FT)for heterogeneous passengers with fight delays is proposed.First,the latent class model is used to classify passengers into three groups.Then,the objective characteristics of different travel modes and the subjective attitudes of passengers are considered comprehensively to determine the three reference points,and the attribute preference weights of heterogeneous passengers are determined.Finally,according to the comprehensive prospect value,the optimal travel mode choice of passengers under different delay situations is determined.The research shows that the consistency between the travel mode choice based on prospect theory and fuzzy mixed multi-attribute decision making and the actual choice of passengers is 88%.By comparing with the three situations that only considering a single factor to describe the scheme,only using a single reference point to compare the scheme and taking passengers as homogeneous subjects,the decision-making method that comprehensively considers multiple travel mode attributes,three reference points and passenger heterogeneity can more effectively explain passengers'travel mode choice behavior after flight delays.