基于TEM的民用运输航空征候影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Civil Transport Aviation Incidents Based on TEM

为减少民用运输航空征候的发生,本文选取2016-2020年国内514起有完整调查报告的民用运输航空征候,采用威胁与差错管理(TEM)分析,从潜在的情况、威胁、机组人员差错、非预期的航空器状态、结束状态5个方面统计分类,研究民用运输航空征候影响因素的分布特点。结果表明:潜在的情况中主要影响因素为飞行运行的培训系统以及标准操作程序及检查;威胁中的主要影响因素为气象、包容性发动机故障/动力装置故障;机组人员差错中的主要影响因素为标准操作程序遵守/标准操作程序检查、手动操作/飞行控制;非预期的航空器状态主要为航空器构型错误和航空器操作;结束状态主要为飞行中损坏、地面损坏、偏离跑道/滑行道。最后,针对高频次影响因素,对机组、航空公司、机场、空管、航空器制造商提出安全建议。

In order to reduce the occurrence of civil transport aviation incidents,this paper selected 514 domestic civil transport aviation incidents with complete investigation reports from 2016 to 2020,and used threat and error management(TEM)analysis to statistically classify them from five aspects:potential situation,threat,crew error,unexpected aircraft state,and end state.The distribution characteristics of influencing factors of civil transport aviation incidents were studied.The results show that the main influencing factors in the potential situation are the training system of flight operation and standard operating procedures and in-spections;The main influencing factors of the threat are meteorological,contained engine failure/power plant failure;The main influencing factors of crew error are standard operating procedure compliance/Standard operating procedure inspection,manual operation/fight control;The unexpected aircraft state mainly includes aircraft configuration error and aircraft operation;The end states are mainly in-flight damage,ground damage,deviation from runway/taxiway.Finally,according to the influencing factors of high frequency,safety suggestions are put forward for aircrew,airlines,airports,air traffic controllers and aircraft manufactur-ers.