基于随机森林与结构方程模型的“慢就业”现象影响因素及预警机制研究

Study on the Factors Influencing the Phenomenon of"Slow employment"and the Early Warning Mechanism Based on Random Forest and Structural Equation Model

就业是重要的民生,高校毕业生就业备受社会各界普遍关注。然而,受国际国内等复杂因素影响,大学生“慢就业”现象呈现蔓延趋势,深刻影响经济社会发展和家庭健康稳定。针对“慢就业”现象影响因素关联复杂、调查数据呈离散高维分布等问题,基于“慢就业”现状深入调查分析,构建随机森林模型和结构方程模型,从学校、家庭、个人、社会四个方面定量厘清影响因素相互关系。为改善“慢就业”现象,从学校、家庭、个人、社会角度提出相应预警机制。

Employment is an important topic of people's livelihood,and the employment of college graduates has received widespread attention from all walks of life.However,due to the influence of international and domestic complex factors,the phenomenon of"slow employment"of college students is spreading,which deeply affects the economic and social development and family health and stability.In view of the complex association of the factors influencing the phenomenon of"slow employment"and the discrete and high-dimensional distribution of the survey data,an in-depth investigation and analysis is conducted based on the current situation of"slow employment",and a random forest model and a structural equation model are constructed to quantitatively clarify the interrelationship of the influencing factors from four aspects:school,family,individual and society.The relationship between the influencing factors is quantitatively clarified.Finally,to improve the phenomenon of"slow employment",we propose an early warning mechanism from the perspectives of school,family,individual and society.