摘要
新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情迅速蔓延对全人类的生存发展造成严重的影响。将中国国家卫生健康委员会公布的武汉市疫情数据作为研究对象,基于SEIR模型基础上提出SEIR-RD和SEIR-RS模型来重建COVID-19传播过程。通过对COVID-19爆发后114天内的新增病例和死亡人数实现仿真分析,模型预测出COVID-19确诊病例和疫情规模随时间变化的趋势。实验结果表明,SEIR-RD模型能够有效预测COVID-19疫情峰值和疫情规模,并获得与实际情况几乎相同的发展趋势。最后,对印度自2021年4月份以来第二阶段疫情爆发作出预测分析,用以探究SEIR-RD模型的可行性。
The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus(COVID-19)has severely affected the survival and development of mankind.Based on the SEIR model,the SEIR-RD and SEIR-RS models were proposed to reconstruct the transmission process of COVID-19 based on the data of Wuhan released by The National Health Commission of China.By simulating the number of new cases and deaths within 114 days of the COVID-19 outbreak,the model predicted the trend of confirmed COVID-19 cases and the scale of the outbreak over time.The experimental results show that the SEIR-RD model can effectively predict the peak and scale of the COVID-19,and obtain almost the same development trend as the actual situation.Finally,the paper makes a prediction analysis of the second-stage outbreak in India since April 2021 to explore the feasibility of the SEIR-RD model.
作者
阿布都克力木·阿布力孜
林璞
李文卓
郭文强
ABULIZI Abudukelimu;LIN Pu;LI Wen-zhuo;GUO Wen-qiang(Department of Information Management,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012,China)
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2023年第8期320-326,共7页
Computer Simulation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(61866035,61966033)
国家重点研发专项(2018YFC0825504)。
