地缘政治变动下中东欧国家对华政策趋向论析

Study of the Policy Trends of Central and Eastern European Countries towards China under Geopolitical Changes

自2017年特朗普政府重返中东欧之后,美西方与俄罗斯利益博弈态势加剧,导致中东欧地缘政治加速动荡。尤其是2022年俄乌冲突的爆发,给处在中美博弈新中间地带以及美西方和俄罗斯博弈前沿阵线的中东欧国家带来了前所未有的地缘安全挑战,改变了中东欧绝大多数国家对外战略的优先次序,经济利益全面让位于安全利益成为这些国家制定外交战略的优先事项。这一变化对“中国-中东欧国家合作”产生了难以逆转的冲击,本文根据中东欧国家对华政策趋向的特征,将其分为五大类:对华强硬派、合作与批评并举派、战略模糊派、对华务实派和对华友好派。总之,后乌克兰危机时期的中国-中东欧国家合作除了充分研判大国博弈因素之外,应遵循差异化和精准化的合作对策,应根据当前中东欧国家对华政策定位的不同类型而因国施策,统筹经贸、环保、人文等多个维度,协调中央和地方多层级合作。

Since the Trump administration re-emphasized on Central and Eastern Europe in 2017,the interest game between the United States and the West and Russia has intensified,leading to accelerated geopolitical turmoil in Central and Eastern Europe.In particular,the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 has brought unprecedented geosecurity challenges to these countries,and has changed the sequence of their foreign strategies.Economic interests have given way to security interests and have become the priorities of these countries in formulating diplomatic strategies.This change has had an irreversible impact on the"Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries".This article divides the Central and Eastern European countries into five categories based on the characteristics of their policy trends towards China:hardliners on China(the three Baltic countries),both cooperation and criticism faction(Romania,the Czech Republic,Slovakia and Slovenia),strategic ambiguity faction(Poland and Albania),pragmatism faction towards China(Croatia,Montenegro,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,North Macedonia)and China-friendly faction(Hungary,Serbia and Greece).In short,in the post-Ukraine crisis period,the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries should not only fully analyze the factors of great power game,but also follow differentiated and precise cooperation strategies,implement country-specific policies based on the different policy positioning towards China,take multiple dimensions including economy and trade,environmental protection,and humanities into account,and coordinate different cooperations in the levels of central and local governments.