农村金融发展与农业经济增长:“门槛效应”还是“瓶颈效应”?

Rural Financial Development and the Growth of Agricultural Economy:Threshold Effect or Bottleneck Effect?

本文使用PLSTR模型在县级层面探究了农村金融发展与农业经济增长间的关联机制。研究发现:农村金融发展对农业经济增长的影响具有显著的门槛效应,当金融相关率低于门槛水平1.55时,金融发展对经济增长的影响体现为金融排斥,而当其跨越门槛值后,二者将呈协同发展态势;农村金融发展同样存在瓶颈效应,当金融相关率超过2.4后,效率将达到极限,此后金融扩张非但不能促进增长,反而还会增加金融风险;目前全国多数县级农村的金融发展已跨越门槛,呈现良好发展态势,但是部分县存在过度金融化的隐患,尚需进行平衡治理。

This article makes a study on the correlation between rural financial development and agricultural economic growth at the county level using a PLSTR model.The study finds that the impact of rural financial development on agricultural economic growth shows a significant financial threshold effect.When the financial coverage ratio is under the threshold value of 1.55,the financial exclusion effect emerges.While the ratio exceeds the threshold,the agricultural economics will increase in harmony with rural financial development.There is also a bottleneck effect of rural financial development.When the financial coverage ratio is higher than 2.4,the financial efficiency will touch its ceiling,and financial expansion will not only promote growth,but also increase financial risks.The financial development of most county-level rural areas has overcome the threshold,exhibiting a good development trend,while some counties have hidden dangers of excessive financialization,which still need balanced governance.