中国能源技术进步偏向适宜性的有效判别、时空演变与碳排放空间溢出效应

Effective Discrimination,Space-Time Evolution and Spatial Spillover Effect of Carbon Emissions in China’s Energy Technology Progress

在“双碳”目标下,中国能源技术进步的偏向及适宜性特征刻画对于经济绿色转型具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文构建了一个能源(E)、资本(K)和劳动(L)三要素的双层嵌套CES生产函数,利用可行性广义非线性最小二乘法(FGNLS)和标准化供给面系统方程组,估计中国2006~2018年城市层面要素替代弹性和能源技术进步偏向程度,并进一步有效判别城市层面能源技术进步的适宜性及其影响因素。结果表明,(1)能源与资本的替代弹性明显小于1,技术进步为能源节约型技术进步。(2)利用能源与资本之间的替代弹性构建技术进步偏向性指数,根据能源与资本要素投入比和技术进步偏向性指数的耦合关系,中国城市层面能源偏向型技术进步整体呈现适宜的状态。(3)分地区来看,中国八大综合经济区技术进步适宜性呈现不同的变化趋势,存在区域异质性。(4)碳排放具有空间溢出效应,能源节约型技术进步不仅能对本地区碳减排产生积极作用,还能影响邻近地区碳排放。本文为不同地区根据能源技术进步偏向制定合理的碳减排政策、高效实现“双碳”目标提供了依据。

Under the target of“Dual-carbon”,the characterization of the bias and suitability of China’s energy technology progress has important theoretical and practical significance for economic green transformation.This paper constructs a double-layer nested CES production function of energy(E),capital(K)and labor(L).By using the feasibility generalized nonlinear least square method(FGNLS)and the equation standardized supply surface system,it estimates the substitution elasticity of factors and the degree of energy technology progress bias at the urban level in China from 2006 to 2018,and further effectively discriminates the suitability and influencing factors of energy technology progress at the urban level.The results show that:(1)the substitution elasticity of energy and capital is obviously less than 1,and technological progress is energy-saving.(2)The substitution elasticity between energy and capital is used to build a technology progress biased index.According to the coupling relationship between the input ratio of the two elements of energy and capital and the technology progress biased index,the overall energy biased technology progress at the urban level in China shows a suitable state.(3)From a regional perspective,the technological progress suitability of China’s eight major comprehensive economic zones shows different trends of change,and there is regional heterogeneity.(4)Carbon emissions have a spatial spillover effect.Energy saving technological progress can not only have a positive effect on carbon emission reduction in this region,but also affect carbon emissions in neighboring regions.This paper provides a basis for different regions to formulate reasonable carbon emission reduction policies according to the trend of energy technology progress and achieve the“Dual-carbon”target efficiently.