新冠疫情下中国国际航线网络演化特征

Evolution characteristics of China’s international air transport network under impact of COVID-19

全球疫情形势下,各国国际航班政策变化、国际航线数量下降、国际客流量锐减对中国国际航线网络结构特征产生了重大影响,分析疫情下中国国际航线网络演化特征对于航空公司未来国际航线恢复和资源调配决策具有非常重要意义。采用K-Core网格划分算法对2019-2021年不同时期中国国际航线网络进行层级划分,通过分析各节点网络特征、所属层级和中转旅客份额等指标变化情况,确定节点和层级功能的转变,判断网络结构发展趋势。根据节点度、旅客运输量和感染人数对网络节点重要程度进行评估和排序,并通过依次移除节点的方式对网络进行蓄意攻击,分析不同层级网络的鲁棒性变化,识别疫情发展不同时期的关键节点。研究表明:在诸如旅客需求减少、国际航班政策等内外因素驱动下,国际航线网络结构和节点功能均发生改变,且部分改变是不可逆的,核心层与网络整体的连接性和主导作用逐步减弱,连接层的中转功能进一步加强,边缘层成为最具潜力的恢复市场。航空公司可以考虑与边缘层节点建立良好的连通关系,不仅可以维持突发情况下网络的正常运转,还可以在网络恢复期重建关键中转节点,提升国际客流份额。

Under the global COVID-19 pandemic,the various international flight policies and the huge decline in international routes and passengers have had a significant impact on the structural characteristics of China’s international air transportation network.It is important to analyze the characteristics and evolution of China’s international air transportation network for airlines’future international route recovery and resource allocation K-Coredecisions.In this paper,the algorithm is used to decompose China’s international air transportation network into different layers from 2019 to 2021.By analyzing the characteristics,level belonging,and transit passenger share of each node,the different layer functions were determined and the development trend of the network structure was concluded.In addition,the network was purposefully assaulted by eliminating nodes one at a time in accordance with their node relevance.The nodes were ranked and appraised by taking into account node degree,passenger flow,and the number of infected persons.Therefore,the evolution of network robustness was analyzed which is helpful to identify the key nodes in different periods.It demonstrates how the network structure and node functions have changed,some of which will be irreversible,as a result of internal and external factors such as decreased passenger numbers and international flight policies.The connectivity and dominant role of the core layer on the entire network are gradually weakened,the transfer function of the bridge layer is further strengthened,and the periphery layer will become the most promising recovery market.Airlines can consider establishing stronger connectivity with these nodes,which can not only maintain the normal operation of the network in case of emergencies but also rebuild key transit nodes during the network recovery period and improve passenger demand.