水资源总量约束条件下玛纳斯河流域绿洲水资源承载力研究

Research on WRCC of oasis in Manas River Basin under the constraint of total water resources

水资源承载力是衡量人水和谐的重要参照目标和尺度之一,分析和研究水资源承载力对指导区域经济社会可持续发展有重大意义。新疆兵团第八师作为天山北坡经济带重要城市,近年来随着区域工农业的发展加之水资源“三条红线”约束下水资源供水量的减少,导致区域用水供需问题日益尖锐。本文采用系统动力学模型与模糊综合评判法相结合,构建了玛纳斯河流域绿洲城市水资源承载力系统动力学模型,基于水资源总量约束设置现状延续型、高效节水型、环境保护型及综合发展型4种情景,对研究区水资源承载力历史状况(2013-2019年)和未来趋势(2020-2030年)进行评估和模拟预测。结果表明:在现状延续型发展下,区域水资源用水总量到2030年将超出水资源用水总量控制指标的50%;在高效节水型和环境保护型情景下,到2030年区域水资源承载值分别达到0.433和0.432,增长幅度较小;在综合发展型情景下,区域水资源承载力显著提高,到2030年增长至0.471,有效兼顾了水资源和环境保护及社会经济发展,为最佳方案。本文研究结果可为西北干旱区绿洲水资源和社会经济的可持续发展提供科学参考。

Water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)is essential for characterizing the harmony between humans and water resources in an area.Investigation of the WRCC is useful for guiding the sustainable development of a region.The Eighth Division of the Corps is an important city in the economic belt on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.In recent years,with the development of regional industry and agriculture and the reduction of water supply under the constraints of the"three red lines"of water resources.The problem of regional water supply and demand has become increasingly acute.To this end,this paper uses a combination of system dynamics model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct a system dynamics model for the WRCC of the oasis in the Manas River Basin.Based on the total amount of water resources constraints,set up 4 scenarios,including the continuation of the status quo,efficient water conservation,environmental protection and comprehensive development.The study carried out the assessment and simulation prediction of the historical status(2013-2019)and future trends(2020-2030)of the basin's WRCC.The results show that:Under the continuation of the status quo development,the total regional water resources will exceed 50%of the total water resources control target by 2030;Under the high-efficiency water-saving and environmental protection scenarios,the regional WRCC will reach 0.433 and 0.432 respectively by 2030,with a small growth rate;Under the comprehensive development scenario,the regional WRCC has improved most significantly.It grows to 0.471 by 2030,and effectively taking into account water resources and environmental protection and economic development.The comprehensive development scenario is considered to be the best solution.The research results can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in the oasis in the arid region of Northwest China.