江西丰城市“2023.5”溃堤洪水险情反演与溃坝险情模拟分析

Simulation of the dam-break flood and analysis of the dam failure risk in Fengcheng City in“2023.5”

2023年5月,受强降雨影响,江西丰城市清丰堤与牛坑水库发生不同程度的险情,造成了一定程度的洪灾损失。在收集此次险情相关数据基础上,利用水动力学法和遥感监测方法反演模拟了溃堤淹没范围,利用水力学经验公式法计算分析了牛坑水库溃坝险情,并进行了现场实地复核。结果表明,此次模拟的溃堤及溃坝淹没范围与实际情况较为吻合。研究成果可为受灾区域的灾后快速评估和防洪应急抢险决策提供技术参考。

In May 2023,due to the influence of heavy rainfall,Qingfeng dike and Niukeng Reservoir in Fengcheng City,Jiangxi Province,were subjected to varying degrees of peril,resulting in consequential flood damage.This research paper focuses on the analysis of this critical situation,wherein data related to the hazardous circumstances were systematically gathered.Subsequently,an inverse simulation of dike breaching inundation range was conducted utilizing hydrodynamic and remote sensing monitoring methods.Concurrently,the dam breaching risk of Niukeng Reservoir was computed and evaluated using the hydrodynamic empirical formula method.Furthermore,an on-site field inspection was executed,corroborating that the simulated dike breaching and dam breaching inundation ranges closely aligned with the actual occurrences.The findings of this study indicate a strong congruence between the simulated dam failure and the actual inundation range of the dam breach.These research outcomes furnish valuable technical references for post-disaster rapid assessments and flood emergency response decision-making in the affected region.