增值税留抵退税对市场竞争格局的影响研究——市场激励效应与异质性成本效应

Refund of Uncredited VAT and Market Competition of Advanced Manufacturing Industry:Market Incentive Effect and Heterogeneous Cost Effect

本文将增值税留抵退税要素纳入企业异质性理论模型,利用2012—2021年中国A股上市公司数据,以2018年增值税留抵退税试点政策作为准实验进行了实证检验,探讨留抵退税政策对市场竞争格局的影响。研究发现:增值税留抵退税政策总体上降低了行业内销售集中程度,提高了市场竞争水平。从影响机制看,增值税留抵退税政策通过“市场激励效应”提高了行业内企业数量和新进入企业数量,并在改善了企业资金状况后通过“异质性成本效应”刺激了小企业活力,提升了市场竞争强度。异质性分析表明,增值税留抵退税政策对不同退税强度行业的竞争程度有着强弱不同的作用。本文的研究结论为深化留抵退税政策提供了理论基础和经验证据。

In this paper,the factors of refund of uncredited VAT are incorporated into a heterogeneous firm model.Based on the theoretical analysis,this paper uses the industrial-level and firm-level data of China's listed companies from 2012 to 2021,and takes the pilot policy of tax rebate for advanced manufacturing industry in 2018 as the quasi-experiment for empirical analysis.The results show that the refund of uncredited VAT policy improved the market competition level of the pilot industry.Mechanism analysis shows that,the refund of uncredited VAT policy has both"market incentive effect",which increases the number of firms,and"heterogeneous cost effect",which stimulates more on small firms.Heterogeneous analysis shows that the refund of uncredited VAT policy has heterogeneous effects on industries with different policy intensities.This paper provides empirical evidence and theoretical basis for improving the institutional tax rebate policy.