2012-2019年江苏省疟疾病例时空流行病学特征研究

Temporal-spatial epidemiological characteristics of malaria cases in Jiangsu province,2012−2019

目的分析2012—2019年江苏省各辖市疟疾病例地区和时间分布特征,研究病例的时空聚集性,为输入性疟疾防控提供理论依据。方法收集江苏省2012—2019年疟疾病例流行病学数据,使用ArcGIS 10.2软件进行全局和局部自相关分析,通过SatScan 9.5软件进行时空扫描研究病例时空聚集性。结果2012—2019年江苏省报告疟疾病例2333例,输入性病例2329例(99.83%),中国籍人员2317例(99.31%),职业为务工人员1939例(83.11%),来源地为非洲地区2279例(97.85%),东南亚地区43例(1.85%)。病例数排名前5位的省辖市为南通市350例(15.00%)、泰州市277例(11.87%)、连云港市276例(11.83%)、扬州市268例(11.49%)、淮安市258例(11.06%)。病例地区分布有趋势性,每年度有1—2月和4—7月两个病例数峰值期。空间自相关分析显示,2012—2019年疟疾病例无全局空间自相关性,但局部空间自相关分析发现存在有“热点区”、“冷点区”。时空扫描显示,2013—2016年有3个聚集区域,涉及淮安、连云港、泰州、扬州、南通5个省辖市。结论2012—2019年江苏省疟疾病例存在一定的时空聚集性,要采取针对性措施开展防控工作。

Objective To analyze the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of malaria cases in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019,to analyze the temporal-spatial clustering of malaria cases,in order to provide theoretical basis for prevention and control of imported cases.Methods The epidemic data of malaria cases in Jiangsu province was collected.The global and local spatial autocorrelation of malaria cases was carried out respectively by ArcGIS 10.2.The temporal-spatial clustering was analyzed by spatial-temporal scanning by SatScan 9.5.Results A total of 2333 malaria cases were reported in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019.2329(99.83%)cases were imported.2317(99.31%)cases were Chinese.1939(83.11%)cases were Chinese migrant workers.2279(97.85%)cases were imported from African.43(1.85%)cases were imported from southeast Asia.The top 5 cities were Nantong(350,15.00%),Taizhou(277,11.87%),Lianyungang(276,11.83%),Yangzhou(268,11.49%),Huai'an(258,11.06%).There was a trend in spatial distribution.January-February and April-July were annual bimodal periods.Spatial autocorrelation analysis results showed that there was no obvious global spatial correlation from 2012 to 2019.But there were in hot areas and cold areas in local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Three high risk clustering areas were detected by year-by-year spatial-temporal scanning,involved in Huai’an,Lianyungang,Taizhou,Yangzhou,Nantong.Conclusion There is a certain level of spatial-temporal clustering in malaria cases in Jiangsu province from 2012 to 2019.The targeted measures should be taken to prevent and control the epidemic.