中国数字经济发展水平测度及动态演变分析

The Measurement and Analysis of the Development of China's Digital Economy and Dynamic Evolution

本文基于对我国数字经济发展内涵的深刻理解,从数字基础设施、数字创新能力、数字产业规模和数字技术应用四个维度构建了中国数字经济发展水平评价指标体系,并对中国30个省市区(不含西藏和港澳台地区)数字经济发展水平进行测度。接着采用Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解方法和核密度估计方法对中国数字经济发展水平的地区差异进行分析,采用传统Markov链方法及空间Markov链方法进一步分析动态演变过程。研究结果发现:目前,中国数字经济发展水平较低,区域差异较大,两极分化和发展不协调的现象突出,呈现“东高、中西低”的分布格局,动态演变受相邻区域空间滞后项类型的影响。

Based on a deep understanding of the connotation of China digital economy development,this paper constructs an evaluation index system for the development level of China's digital economy from the four dimensions of digital infrastructure,digital innovation capabilities,digital industry scale,and digital technology applications.Then,the paper measure the development level of digital economy about 30 provinces in China(Excluding Tibet and Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan),use the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation to analyze the regional difference,the traditional Markov chain and the spatial Markov chain are used to further analyze the dynamic evolution process.The results show:Now,China's digital economy is at a low level of development,with large regional differences,and the phenomenon of polarization and uncoordinated development is prominent,which form the distribution pattern of the"east strong,middle and west weak",and dynamic evolution is affected by the types of spatial lags in adjacent regions.