摘要
针对影响煤矿顶板事故关键致因并有效预防煤矿顶板事故发生,选用DEMATEL-ISM-BN模型计算出各影响因素间的关联影响强度,搭建贝叶斯网络模型实现敏感性分析和诊断推理。结果表明:操作问题、责任落实制度不到位、领导带班跟班制度不健全、人员进入冒落区、人才储备不足是煤矿顶板事故出现的重要影响因素;围岩裂隙发育、冲击地压、支护失效、围岩应力集中、支护强度不够对煤矿顶板事故敏感性较强;在煤矿顶板事故一定出现的前提下,安全管理混乱发生的可能性最大。可为降低煤矿顶板事故发生概率提供理论参考。
Aiming at the key causes of coal mine roof accidents and effective prevention of coal mine roof accidents,DEMATEL-ISM-BN model is used to calculate the correlation influence strength among the influencing factors,and Bayesian network model is built to realize sensitivity analysis and diagnostic reasoning.The results show that operational issues,inadequate responsibility implementation system,incomplete leadership and follow-up system,personnel into the caving area,and insufficient talent reserves are important influencing factors affecting the occurrence of coal mine roof accidents;the sensitivity of surrounding rock fissure development,rock burst,support failure,surrounding rock stress concentration,and insufficient support strength to coal mine roof accidents is strong;under the premise of certain occurrence of coal mine roof accidents,the possibility of chaotic safety management is the greatest.It can provide theoretical reference for reducing the probability of coal mine roof accidents.
作者
王丹
盛武
WANG Dan;SHENG Wu(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan Anhui 213000,China)
出处
《兰州工业学院学报》
2023年第5期9-15,共7页
Journal of Lanzhou Institute of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(71971003)
安徽高校省级科学基金(YJS20210411)
安徽省自然科学基金(1808085MG212)。
