外阴鳞状细胞癌手术预后列线图模型建立

Establishment of Nomogram models for surgical prognosis in patients with vulva squamous cell carcinoma.

目的:建立外阴鳞癌手术后生存时间列线图模型,评估其生存率。方法:回顾分析SEER数据库中2607例诊断为外阴鳞癌的手术后患者,Cox比例风险回归模型单因素及多因素分析筛选独立危险因素。构建3年生存率和5年生存率的列线图模型,ROC曲线及校准图对模型进行检验,生存曲线评估其生存时间。结果:Cox回归模型结果表明,年龄、组织学分级、AJCC分期是外阴鳞癌手术后患者预后的独立因素。R语言建立3年和5年的生存率列线图模型,能有效评估患者3年和5年预后的生存率。ROC曲线结果表明,该列线图模型区分度较好。校准图结果表明该列线图模型校准能力较好。生存曲线提示AJCC分期中Ⅳb期预后最差。结论:列线图模型有助于对手术后外阴鳞癌预后生存率进行临床评估。

Objective:The nomogram models of survival time in patients with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma was established to evaluate the survival rate.Methods:A retrospective analysis of 2607 patients were diagnosed as squamous cell carcinoma of vulva after surgery in SEER database.The Cox regression model was used to screen independent risk factors.The nomogram model of 3-year and 5-year survival rate was constructed,and the ROC curve and calibration chart were used to test the nomogram model.The survival curve was used to evaluate the survival time.Results:The Cox regression model showed that age,histological grade and AJCC stage were independent prognostic factors of patients with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma after surgery.The nomogram model of 3-year and 5-year survival rate were established by R language which could effectively evaluate the 3-year and 5-year survival rate of patients.ROC curve results indicated that the nomogram model had good discrimination.The calibration results demonstrated that the nomogram model had good calibration ability.The survival curve suggested thatⅣb stage had the worst prognosis in AJCC stage.Conclusion:The nomogram model is helpful to evaluate the survival rate in patients with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma after surgery.