老年患者上睑成形术后美学效果预测模型的构建研究

Construction of A Prediction Model for the Aesthetic Effect of Elderly Patients after Upper Blepharoplasty

目的:构建老年患者上睑成形术后美学效果的预测模型,并分析该预测模型的预测效能。方法:选取2019年1月-2022年2月笔者医院收治的109例老年上睑皮肤松弛症患者为研究对象,所有患者均接受上睑成形术治疗,评价治疗后6个月患者治疗效果,并根据患者治疗美学效果分析满意组和不满意组。收集两组患者基线资料,手术相关资料及临床特征资料,采用Logistic回归方程构建老年患者上睑成形术后效果的预测模型,使用ROC曲线分析预测模型预测效能。结果:Logistic回归分析显示,上睑皮肤松弛分级越高患者术后美学效果不满意风险越高,此外高龄(OR=1.542)、术后消肿时间长(OR=1.648)是老年上睑皮肤松弛症上睑成形术后美学效果的危险因素(P<0.05),白蛋白水平高(OR=0.878)是老年上睑皮肤松弛症上睑成形术后美学效果的保护因素;联合上述指标构建的预测模型预测老年上睑皮肤松弛症上睑成形术后美学效果的AUC为0.881,敏感度为77.42%,特异度为84.06%。结论:年龄、上睑皮肤松弛分级、术后消肿时间、白蛋白水平是老年上睑皮肤松弛症上睑成形术后美学效果的影响因素,联合上述指标构建的预测模型可用于老年上睑皮肤松弛症上睑成形术后美学效果的预测。

Objective To construct a predictive model for the aesthetic effect after upper blepharoplasty in elderly patients,and to analyze the predictive performance of the predictive model.Methods A total of 109 elderly patients with cutis laxa upper eyelid treated in the author's hospital from January 2019 to February 2022 were selected as the study objects.All subjects received blepharoplasty.The treatment effect of the patients was evaluated 6 months after treatment,and According to the aesthetic effect of patients'treatment,the satisfied group and the dissatisfied group were analyzed.The baseline data,surgeryrelated data,and clinical characteristics of the patients in the two groups were collected,and the logistic regression equation was used to construct a predictive model for the postoperative effect of upper blepharoplasty in elderly patients,and the ROC curve was used to analyze the predictive performance of the predictive model.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that the higher the grade of upper eyelid skin laxity,the higher the risk of dissatisfaction with postoperative aesthetic results.In addition,advanced age(OR=1.542)and long postoperative swelling time(OR=1.648)were associated with upper eyelid skin laxity in the elderly.The risk factors of blepharoplasty after blepharoplasty were risk factors(P<0.05),and high albumin level(OR=0.878)was a protective factor for the esthetic effect after blepharoplasty in elderly patients with upper eyelid sarcopenia,a prediction constructed by combining the above indicators.The AUC of the model to predict the aesthetic effect of blepharoplasty in elderly patients with upper eyelid droopysis was 0.881,the sensitivity was 77.42%,and the specificity was 84.06%.Conclusion Age,upper eyelid skin laxity grade,postoperative swelling time,and albumin level are the influencing factors of the aesthetic effect after blepharoplasty in elderly patients with upper eyelid skin laxity.The prediction model constructed by combining the above indicators can be used for elderly upper eyelid skin prediction of esthetic outcome after upper blepharoplasty in chloasma.