欧洲生育趋势的构成分析

A Decomposition Analysis of the Fertility Changes in Europe

借助国际经验加深对低生育率的认识与理解是国内低生育率研究的重要内容之一。欧洲作为世界上最早出现大范围低生育率现象且持续时间最长的地区,一直以来是我们关注的重点。目前国内大多数对欧洲生育率变动的考察多停留在总和生育率(TFR)水平变动视角,较少关注TFR的构成变动。这对本身存在内部差异且正在经历第二次人口转变、婚育行为已经发生较大改变的欧洲而言是不全面的,因而也难以对生育率变动的原因作出恰当的解读。为此,本文选择了5个来自欧洲不同地区、代表不同生育水平的低生育率国家作为近期欧洲TFR变动的缩影,通过对其TFR的构成分解,试图从构成变动视角解读欧洲近期生育率变动。研究发现,这些欧洲国家的TFR在年龄构成、婚姻构成上变化较为显著,TFR回升的主要动力来自非婚生育的补充。与欧洲相比,中国目前的生育率并无依赖非婚生育补充的现实可能性,而欧洲国家婚内生育推延效应的加深以及非婚生育补偿效应的减弱警示我们,即使存在非婚生育的补充,也不能对低生育率发展趋势掉以轻心,促进生育任重道远。

The better understanding of the low fertility in China via international experience is one of the important approaches to understand the ongoing and potential changes of China’s fertility.As the region with the earliest and longest-lasting widespread low fertility in the world,Europe has been the best reference in this regard and attracts more Chinese scholars to study the low fertility in Europe.However,most studies of the European fertility changes focuses on the changes of total fertility rate(TFR),and few pay attention to the compositional changes of the TFR in Europe,which may brings about an in-comprehensive even misleading understanding of Europe’s low TFR and its changes concerning the great diversification among the European countries,and especially the ongoing second demographic transition with dramatic changing of marriage and childbearing behaviors.This paper selects five low-fertility countries from different regions of Europe representing different types of low fertility changes in Europe and attempts to interpret the fertility changes in Europe from the perspective of structural changes by factor decomposition of TFR.The results show that the TFR changes in Europe are mostly due to significant changes in age structure and marriage structure and the main driving force behind the recent rebound of the TFR in Europe is the increasing children born out of wedlock,which is certainly not practical in China at present.The deepening postponement effect of Children born in wedlock coupled with the weakening compensatory effect of children born out of wedlock in European countries alerts China that the potential contribution of children births out of wedlock may can not significantly stop the increasing trend of low fertility in China and China still has a long way to go in promoting the rise of fertility.