生命历程理论下我国老年人生活自理能力变化的年龄-队列效应

Age cohort effect of the change of self-care ability of the elderly population in China under the life course theory

目的探究影响我国老年人生活自理能力的多种因素,分析生活自理能力变化的年龄、队列独立效应。方法基于2002-2018年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查(the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey,CLHLS)追踪数据,以Stata 14.0软件为工具,运用分层生长曲线模型进行统计分析。结果年龄、队列对老年人生活自理能力具有独立效应。随着年龄的增长,我国老年人生活自理能力变差,生活自理能力的城乡差异变大;较早、较晚出生队列的老年人生活自理能力差,中间队列的生活自理能力较好;生活自理能力的城乡差异随着队列的年轻化而变小。个体行为生活方式、社会经济地位、性别、慢性病数量均对生活自理能力具有明显影响。结论我国老年人生活自理能力的影响因素具有多重性、混杂性,年龄效应和队列独立效应具有统计学意义;老年人生活自理能力的学术研究不仅要注重年龄变动趋势,而且更应关注老年人出生队列的差异性;老年失能的社会预防策略不仅应关注老年人的个体行为特征,更应把握其队列群体特征。

Objective To explore various factors affecting the self-care ability of the elderly in China,and to isolate the age and cohort independent effects of the change of self-care ability.Methods A layered growth curve model was utilized for statistical analysis of data derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey(CLHLS)(2002-2018),a multi-cohort tracking study.Stata14.0 software was used as the analytical tool.Results Age and cohort have independent effects on the self-care capacity of the elderly.As age increases,the self-care ability of elderly people in China deteriorates,with differences between urban and rural areas widening.Elderly people born in earlier and later cohorts have poor self-care abilities,while those born in the middle cohorts have better self-care abilities.The difference in self-care ability between urban and rural areas decreases as the cohort becomes younger.Individual behavior and lifestyle,socioeconomic status,gender,and the number of chronic diseases have significant effects on self-care ability.Conclusions The influencing factors of the self-care ability of the elderly population in China are multiple and mixed,and the age effect and cohort independent effect are significant.Academic research on the disability of the elderly population should not only pay attention to the changing trend of the age but also pay attention to the differences in the birth cohort of the elderly population.The social prevention strategy of senile disability should not only pay attention to the individual behavior characteristics of the elderly population but also grasp the group characteristics of the cohort.