RCEP贸易网络演化对成员国全球价值链分工地位的影响研究

Impact of RCEP Trade Network Evolution on Member Countries'Global Value Chains Position

RCEP是东亚国家谋求共同发展的现实选择,也是中国高质量对外开放的重要平台。基于改进的贸易联系强度指数,运用社会网络分析方法,分析了2007—2021年RCEP制造业贸易网络与各成员国全球价值链(GVC)分工地位的演变趋势,并对贸易网络演化对GVC分工地位的影响进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,RCEP制造业整体贸易联系强度明显增强,中国成为贸易网络的中心,但在全球价值链上仍处于中低端位置。第二,网络中心度和贸易联系强度对成员国的GVC分工地位具有显著正向影响,聚类系数与GVC分工地位负相关。异质性分析结果显示,高技术制造业的聚类系数对GVC分工地位有正向影响。RCEP成员国均能从区域贸易网络发展中受益,但发达国家GVC分工地位提升更显著。第三,技术溢出、产业转移和产业链韧性三种中介机制的效应具有较大差异。发展中国家可以通过技术溢出机制实现GVC分工地位提升。而对于发达国家,技术溢出效应不显著,产业转移的中介效应更明显。

RCEP is a realistic choice for East Asian countries to pursue common development and an important platform for China's high-quality opening-up.Based on the improved trade link strength index and the social network method,this paper analyzes the evolution trend of RCEP manufacturing trade network and the position of global value chains(GVCs)of each member country from 2007 to 2021,and empirically analyzes the influence of trade network evolution on position of GVCs.The research has the following findings:Firstly,the intensity of the overall trade links has been significantly enhanced.China has become the center of the trade network.But it is still in the middle and low position in GVCs.Secondly,the degree of network centrality and the strength of trade links have a significant positive impact on the position of GVCs.The clustering coefficient is negatively correlated with the position of GVCs.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the clustering coefficient of hightech manufacturing industry has a positive influence on the position of GVCs.All RCEP members can benefit from the development of regional trade networks,but the position of GVCs in developed countries has improved more significantly.Thirdly,the effects of the three intermediary mechanisms of technology spillover,industrial transfer and industrial chain resilience are quite different.Developing countries can improve the position of GVCs through technology spillover mechanism.For developed countries,the technology spillover effect is not significant,and the intermediary effect of industrial transfer is more obvious.