“气象灾害+新冠疫情”下黄土高原农户生计恢复力影响因素研究

Factors influencing farmers'livelihood resilience in the Loess Plateau on the background of meteorological disasters and the COVID-19

气象灾害和新冠疫情给黄土高原农户生计带来了重大风险,分析农户生计恢复力的影响因素成为农户战胜灾害、抵御疫情、提升恢复力的关键。构建“气象灾害+新冠疫情”下的农户生计恢复力框架,基于黄土高原陕甘晋地区497个农户调查数据,分析农户生计的主要风险,应用中介效应模型检验农户风险认知和适应性行为影响生计恢复力的机制。结果表明:1)气象灾害和新冠疫情导致的自然风险、经济风险、社会风险和健康风险对农户生计恢复力有显著的负向作用;往期的外部风险对农户风险认知有正向影响。2)在“气象灾害+新冠疫情”下,农户风险认知正向影响农户适应性行为及其恢复力,农户适应性行为正向影响生计恢复力;适应性行为在农户风险认知影响生计恢复力的过程中有中介效应。

The livelihoods of farmers on the Loess Plateau are facing major risks due to meteorological disasters and COVID-19.Understanding the factors that influence their livelihood resilience is crucial for farmers to overcome these challenges,resist the epidemic,and improve their resilience.To address this issue,we constructed a framework for farmers'livelihood resilience under"meteorological disaster+COVID-19".We analyzed the main risks faced by 497 farmers in Shaanxi,Gansu and Shanxi regions of the Loess Plateau,and used an intermediary effect model to test the influencing mechanism of farmers'risk cognition and adaptive behavior on livelihood resilience.Our results indicate that natural,economic,social,and health risks caused by meteorological disasters and COVID-19 significantly negatively impact on farmers'livelihood resilience,while external risks in the past positively affect farmers'risk cognition.Moreover,under the"meteorological disaster+COVID-19"scenario,farmers'risk cognition positively affects their adaptive behavior and livelihood resilience,with adaptive behavior serving as an intermediary factor between risk cognition and livelihood resilience.