基于PLUS模型的土地利用多情景模拟与时空特征分析

Multi-scenario simulation and spatial-temporal analysis of landuse based on PLUS model

以河源市2009—2018年土地利用数据为基础,利用PLUS模型模拟3种典型情景下的2030年土地利用情况,并以耕地用地为例讨论用地变化的空间自相关性、驱动因子相关性及重心迁移等时空分布特征。结果表明,在自然发展情景下,河源市耕地、建筑用地及交通用地将会扩张且整体土地价值要高于其余两类情景;生态保护优先情景中城市化扩张用地主要来源耕地、园地等农用经济地,经济发展情景中则是林地;耕地及其变化呈北多南少、高度聚合的时空特征,其用地重心也呈现北迁态势。

Based on the land use data of Heyuan city from 2009 to 2018,the PLUS model is used to simulate the land use in 2030 under three typical scenarios,and the spatial autocorrelation of land use change,the correlation of driving factors and the migration of gravity center are discussed with the example of cultivated land.The results show that the cultivated land,building land and traffic land will expand and the overall land value is higher than the other two scenarios under the natural development scenario.In the ecological protection priority scenario,the main source of urbanization expansion land is cultivated land,garden land and other agricultural economic land,while in the economic development scenario,it is forest land.The spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land and its change are more in the north and less in the south,and the center of gravity of this kind of land will move northward.