基于生态系统服务功能的汉江流域中下游生态分区演变特征及驱动能力研究

Evolutionary Characteristics and Driving Capacity of Ecological Zoning in Middle and Lower Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin Based on Ecosystem Service Functions

[目的]对汉江流域中下游生态分区演变特征及驱动能力进行研究,为汉江流域中下游区域水生态环境可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于InVEST模型、聚类以及相关性分析的方法,以水环境相关生态系统服务为切入点进行了多年生态系统服务变化及分区特征的分析,并进行各生态分区转移区域内生态系统服务与环境变量关联特征的研究。[结果]①2010,2015和2020年生态分区主导区域分别为第3,3,2类区域,面积所占比例分别为70.54%,72.92%和45.53%。与第3类区域相比,第2类区域水源涵养量以及土壤保持强度均更大。②相关性分析表明,降雨量变化与水源涵养量、土壤保持强度变化相关性均较显著;而各土地利用类型中农田与建设用地面积变化对生态系统服务变化相关性较为显著。③在生态分区发生转变区域的解释变量贡献率研究中,降雨变化量解释率较大的区域比例较高且主要位于中部及南部,土地利用变化解释率较大的区域主要位于研究区域西侧及西北侧。[结论]降雨量变化相较于土地利用变化对生态系统服务以及生态分区变化的影响较大,通过明确生态分区变化的关键影响因子可在未来以针对性的土地利用类型布局优化或绿色、灰色基础设施的建设增强生态系统的稳定性。

[Objective]The evolution characteristics and driving capacity of ecological zones in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River basin were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the water ecological environment of this region.[Methods]We used the InVEST model,clustering,and correlation analysis to conduct a multi-year analysis of ecosystem service changes and zoning characteristics based on water environment-related ecosystem services,and to study the association characteristics of ecosystem services and environmental variables within each ecological zoning transfer area.[Results]①In 2010,2015,and 2020,the dominant ecological zoning areas were the third,third,and second category areas,respectively,with area shares of 70.54%,72.92%,and 45.53%.The second category areas had greater water content and soil conservation intensity than the third category areas.②Correlation analysis showed that rainfall changes were significantly correlated with changes in water conservation and soil conservation intensity.Changes in the areas of agricultural land and construction land for each land use type were significantly correlated with changes in ecosystem services.③Regarding the contribution rate of explanatory variables in the areas where ecological zoning shifts occurred,the areas with larger explanatory rates of rainfall changes were mainly located in the central and southern parts of the study area,and the areas with larger explanatory rates of land use changes were mainly located in the western and northwestern parts of the study area.[Conclusion]Rainfall changes had a greater impact on ecosystem services and ecological zoning changes than land use changes.By identifying the key drivers of ecological zoning changes,the stability of ecosystems can be enhanced in the future with targeted optimization of land use type layout or construction of green and gray infrastructure.