地区资产负债表编制与债务风险

Regional Balance Sheet Compilation and Debt Risk

依据SNA2008并借鉴李扬团队的国家资产负债表研究框架,设计地区资产负债表的基本理论框架,编制浙江省、江苏省、上海市、安徽省、贵州省2018—2019年的地区资产负债表,对各省市的基础性指标及地区债务风险进行比较分析。结果表明:长三角地区资产负债表整体稳健,不存在债务危机;从资产、负债和净资产总量指标来看,江苏省和浙江省位居第一梯队,上海市位居第二梯队,安徽省和贵州省位居第三梯队;从居民财富及其结构来看,上海市、浙江省、江苏省的人均财富超过全国平均水平,安徽省和贵州省不及全国平均水平,住房、存款、股票及股权为居民部门的三大主要资产;各省市非金融企业最主要的融资方式为股票与股权融资,政府部门的举债方式以债券为主;从金融风险来看,贵州省的债务偿付风险是五省市中最高的。

Based on SNA2008 and Li Yang team’s research framework of national balance sheet,the paper designed the basic theoretical framework of regional balance sheet,and made up the regional balance sheets of five provincial-level districts from 2018 to 2019,including Zhejing,Jiangsu,Shanghai,Anhui and Guizhou.Then the paper conducted a competitive analysis of the basic indicators and regional debt risk among these districts.The results found that,the balance sheets in the Yangtze River delta region were overall solid,and didn’t have a debt crisis.Considering the indicators of assets,debt and total net assets,the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang were at the top position,followed by Shanghai.The provinces of Anhui and Guizhou ranked third.Considering residents’wealth and the structure,the wealth per adult in the districts like Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangsu has exceeded the national average,while that in the districts of Anhui and Guizhou haven't reached the national average.Meanwhile,the three main assets of the resident sector were housing,deposit and stock.In these districts,the most important financing method of non-financial enterprises was business loans,and the borrowing method of the government was the issuance of bonds.Considering financial risk,Guizhou province had the highest debt repayment risk.