数字金融与区域金融风险:机制检验与门槛效应

Digital Finance and Regional Financial Risks:Mechanism Testing and Threshold Effect

数字金融在重塑金融业态、增强金融服务普惠性的同时,也对区域金融风险演化产生了重要影响。本文从理论上解析了数字金融如何影响区域金融风险,并结合2011-2020年中国省际面板数据实证检验了影响的中介传导机制和门槛效应。结果表明:数字金融发展总体上加剧了区域金融风险积聚,但作用程度具有明显的结构和地区差异性,其中使用深度的作用程度最大,中部地区的加剧效应最强;数字金融可通过提高金融杠杆、增强金融脱媒程度加剧区域金融风险积累;数字金融对区域金融风险的影响具有显著的门槛效应,其加剧效应随着数字金融发展水平的提升呈现边际递增态势。为此,应构建数字金融监管体系,防范和化解区域金融风险。

Digital finance not only reshapes the financial industry and enhances the inclusiveness of financial services,but also has a significant impact on the evolution of regional financial risks.This paper theoretically analyzes how digital finance affects regional financial risks,and empirically tests the intermediary transmission mechanism and threshold effect of the impact with China’s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020.The results indicate that the overall development of digital finance has exacerbated the accumulation of regional financial risks,but the degree of impact has obvious structural and regional differences.Among them,the depth of use has the greatest impact,and the intensification effect is strongest in the central region;Digital finance can exacerbate the accumulation of regional financial risks by increasing financial leverage and enhancing the degree of financial disintermediation;The impact of digital finance on regional financial risks has a significant threshold effect,and its exacerbating effect shows a marginal increasing trend with the improvement of the development level of digital finance.Therefore,a digital financial regulatory system should be established to prevent and resolve regional financial risks.