降雨微分响应修正在港口湾水库洪水预报中的适用性分析

Applicability Analysis of Rainfall Differential Response Correction in Flood Forecasting of Gangkouwan Reservoir

港口湾水库位于长江南岸一级支流水阳江上游支流西津河上,对水阳江流域防洪起着重要作用。降雨微分响应修正是基于系统和微分角度的模型误差修正方法,将该方法应用于港口湾水库流域,对该流域23场历史洪水分别进行雨量单站微分响应与流域平均微分响应2种模式的修正计算。计算结果表明,2种模式的降雨微分响应修正方法在不损失预见期的情况下均能够有效地提高港口湾水库洪水预报的精度,值得进一步研究与推广。

Gangkouwan Reservoir is located on the Xijin River,an upstream tributary of the Shuiyang River,a first-class tributary on the south bank of Yangtze River.The reservoir plays an important role in the flood control of Shuiyang River basin.As a model error correction method based on the system and differential angle,the differential response correction of rainfall is applied to Gangkouwang Reservoir basin to carry out the correction calculation of the rainfall single-station differential response and the average differential response of the basin for 23 historical floods in the basin,respectively.The calculation results show that the differential rainfall response correction method of two models can effectively improve the accuracy of flood prediction of Gangkouwan Reservoir without losing the forecast period,which is worthy of further research and promotion.