摘要
基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库100多个国家和地区的HS(1996)六分位贸易数据,分2002—2007年、2008—2013年、2014—2019年3个阶段,以制造业中间品出口多样化代理全球价值链(GVC)升级,考察出口关联、进口关联对GVC升级的作用效应及其变化。研究发现,出口关联、进口关联对维持制造业中间品既有优势或培育新优势有显著影响,是驱动GVC升级的重要内、外部力量,但出口关联的影响程度远强于进口关联。金融危机后,这些力量的衰退是GVC出现回落的重要原因之一,使GVC的回落不可避免且可能延续较长时期。
Based on the HS(1996)six-digit trade data of more than 100 countries from the UN Comtrade database,this paper investigates the effects of export relatedness and import relatedness on GVC upgrading,which is measured by the diversification of manufacturing intermediate goods and compares the effect changes in three different periods:2002-2007,2008-2013 and 2014-2019.It is found that export relatedness and import relatedness have a significant effect on maintaining existing advantages or cultivating new advantages of intermediate goods,and are important internal and external driving forces of GVC upgrading.And the influence of export relatedness is much stronger than that of import relatedness.After the financial crisis,the decline of these forces is one of the important reasons for the decline of GVC,which makes the decline of GVC inevitable and may last for a long time.
作者
丁小义
曹依静
任可
DING Xiaoyi;CAO Yijing;REN Ke(School of Economics,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China;Business School,Leeds Beckett University,Leeds LS13HE,UK)
出处
《科技与经济》
2023年第5期96-100,共5页
Science & Technology and Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目--“‘一带一路’背景下我国的产品分工与空间优化机理与实现路径研究”(项目编号:18BJL110,项目负责人:丁小义)成果之一。
关键词
出口关联
进口关联
GVC升级
GVC回落
中间品多样化
export relatedness
import relatedness
GVC upgrading
GVC slowdown
diversification of intermediate goods
