管道流量数据缺乏地区SWMM参数率定方法研究及应用

Research and Application of SWMM Parameter Calibration for Pipeline Discharge in Data Deficient Areas

现有城市雨水管网流量实时监测资料的匮乏使城市雨洪模型模拟预报精度无法保证。本文以暴雨洪水管理模型(StormWaterManagementModel,SWMM)为例,提出了矩体概化率定法,构建了郑州大学主校区的SWMM模型,并选取20170812和20210720两场观测降雨进一步评估其适用性。结果表明:模型在率定期、验证期的模拟水深和实测水深的平均绝对误差分别为0.025 m、0.03 m;平均相对误差分别为3.65%、2.54%,故认为矩体概化率定法可以满足无资料地区城市雨洪模拟需求。研究成果对于管流资料缺乏地区的SWMM模型参数率定以及雨洪模拟与预警具有一定的实践意义,可为今后城市应对极端暴雨事件、暴雨内涝防治决策提供参考。

The lack of real-time monitoring information of existing urban stormwater network flow makes the uncertainty of the ac‐curacy of urban flood forecast.In this paper,taking Storm Water Management Model(SWMM)as an example,we proposed a mo‐ment probabilistic rate determination method for the main campus of Zhengzhou University,and selected two observed rainfall events,20170812 and 20210720,to further evaluate its applicability.The results show that the average absolute errors of the model in the simulated water depths during the rate and validation periods are 0.025 m and 0.03 m,respectively;the average rela‐tive errors are 3.65%and 2.54%,respectively,indicating that the method of momentary probabilistic rate determination is consid‐ered to meet the needs of urban rainfall simulation in areas without data.The results could be practical for the parameter determi‐nation of SWMM model and early warning in areas where there is a lack of pipeline discharge data,and can provide reference for future urban response to extreme rainstorm waterlogging prevention.