劳动力成本上升对商品林种植结构的影响——基于林业社会化服务的调节效应分析

Impact of Rising Labor Costs on Planting Structure of Commercial Forests:Based on Moderating Effect of Forestry Socialized Services

基于浙江、福建、广西三省547户农户的调研数据,采用Tobit模型实证分析劳动力成本上升对商品林种植结构的影响,并利用调节效应模型检验林业社会化服务在其中的作用机制。结果表明:劳动力成本上升能够促进农户提高用材林种植比例,但该影响路径会受到林业社会化服务供需缺口的负向调节,现阶段供不应求的林业社会化服务削弱了劳动力成本对用材林种植比例的正向影响,在进行一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立;林业社会化服务供需缺口的调节效应存在异质性,对兼业化程度较低的农户和小规模农户的调节效应更强。基于此,建议科学规划商品林种植结构,优化林地资源配置;弥合林业社会化服务供需缺口,缓解农户调整种植结构的潜在约束;培育新型林业经营主体,创新林业经营模式。

Based on the survey data of 547 rural households in Zhejiang,Fujian and Guangxi provinces,this paper uses Tobit model to empirically analyze the impact of rising labor costs on the planting structure of commercial forests and uses the moderating effect model to analyze the mechanism of forestry socialized services in this influence process.The results show that while rising labor costs can improve the proportion of timber forests,the influence path is negatively moderated by the demand-supply gap of forestry socialized services.The short supply of forestry socialized services has weakened the positive effect of labor costs on the proportion of timber forests.The conclusions remain valid after a series of robustness tests.In addition,there exists heterogeneity in the moderating effect of the demand-supply gap of forestry socialized services,which is stronger for low part-time farmers and small-scale farmers.Therefore,it is suggested to scientifically plan the planting structure of commercial forests and optimize the allocation of forestland resources,bridge the demand-supply gap of forestry socialized services and relieve the potential constraints on adjusting planting structure,cultivate new types of forestry management entities and innovate forestry management models.