缓解抑或加剧?首轮退耕补贴到期对农户正规信贷约束的影响

Alleviation or Exacerbation?Influence of Expiration of Subsidies for First Round of SLCP on Rural Households’Formal Credit Constraints

基于河北和四川两省首轮退耕农户调研数据,采用内生转换模型实证考察退耕补贴到期对农户正规信贷约束的影响作用及其差异。结果表明:退耕补贴到期在一定程度上能够显著缓解农户的正规信贷约束,且结果具有稳健性;从供需视角来看,退耕补贴到期的缓解效果对农户需求型信贷约束和供给型信贷约束同样显著;异质性分析发现,退耕补贴到期能够缓解大规模退耕、小规模退耕以及低收入农户的正规信贷约束,其中,对大退耕规模和低收入农户的需求型信贷约束缓解作用更为明显,但却更易使这两类农户受到供给型信贷约束。基于此,建议从加速退耕补贴到期与正规金融业务的有机衔接、推进退耕补贴到期背景下的金融服务下沉及完善退耕还林后续政策等方面,持续缓解退耕区农户正规信贷约束状况。

This paper uses the endogenous switching regression model to discuss the influence and difference of the expiration of subsidies on rural households’formal credit constraints by selecting sample rural households who participated in the first round of the SLCP and used the related data collected from rural households in Hebei and Sichuan provinces.The results show that the expiration of the subsidies significantly alleviates the formal credit constraints of rural households,and the results are robust.From the perspective of supply and demand,the alleviation effect of the expiration of the subsidies is equally significant for both the demand-oriented and the supply-oriented credit constraints of rural households.Heterogeneity analysis found that the expiration of subsidies significantly alleviates the formal credit constraints of large retiring scale,small retiring scale and low-income rural households.Among them,the expiration of the subsidies has more obvious alleviating effect on the demand-oriented credit constraints of large retiring scale and low-income rural households.However,it is easier for these two types of rural households to be constrained by supply-oriented credit.Therefore,it is suggested to continue to alleviate the formal credit constraints of rural households in the SLCP area by accelerating the organic connection between the expiration of subsidies and the formal financial business,promoting the sinking of financial services under the background of the expiration of subsidies,and improving the follow-up policies of the SLCP.